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Catoni · Guest

On Oct 6, 11:41 am, Lloyd <lpar...@emory.edu> wrote:
[quote]On Oct 5, 7:32 pm, Catoni <caton...@sympatico.ca> wrote:

On Oct 5, 6:20 pm, Roger Coppock <rcopp...@adnc.com> wrote:

On Oct 4, 1:37 pm, "Green Turtle" <SuperTur...@greenpiece.com> wrote:
[ . . . ]

The scientists were talking about a new ice age 30 years ago, and the funny

Oh, come on. Not that old urban myth.

Not a myth.

Yes it is. www.skepticalscience.com

Fact is a lot of them were talking about
another Ice Age.

Not scientists.

If you wish for a large list of magazine, newspaper,
books and even a National Geographic article from the seventies, I can
list them here.

One Example for now:
New York Times, May 21, 1975 : "Scientists Ask Why World
Climate Is Changing; Major Cooling May Be Ahead"

Another:
In the July-August 1975 issue of International Wildlife,
they were asking "In the Grip of a New Ice Age?" in a major article..

Yet another: National Geographic, November 1976, "What>s happening
to our climate?"

Let>s look at some quotes from this one:

p 581: During the last 20 to 30 years, world temperature
has fallen, irregularly at first but more sharply over the last
decade. U.S. National Science Board, 1974.

p 582: Were the cooling trend to reverse... the earth could warm
relatively rapidly, with potentially catastrophic effect. National
Science Foundation, 1975.

p 590: The climates of the earth have always been changing, and they
will doubtless continue to do so in the future. How large these future
chnages will be, and where and how rapidly they will occur, we do not
know. National Academy of Sciences, 1975.

p 595: Judging from the record of the past interglacial ages, the
present time of high temperatures should be drawing to an end...
leading into the next glacial age.... National Science Board, 1972.

could be ... not a scientific prediction.

p 600; Will we be able to recognize the first phases of a truely
significant climatic change when it does occur? NAS, 1975.

p 607: We live in an unusual epoch: today the polar regions have large
ice caps, whereas during most of the earth>s history the poles have
been ice-free. NAS, 1975.

p 610: Man may even be able to change the climate of the earth. This
is one of the most important questions of our time. NBS, 1972.

Want more??? There is actually a lot. I>ll certainly try to find
the time to get them all for you Roger if you wish. No it is no myth
that there were serious fears of Global Cooling and a return of an Ice
Age.

Not a one of them was (1) in a scientific journal and (2) an actual
prediction ("if ... then..." statements).

And we all know about the famous Newsweek article don>t we???
And there are many many more. The Newsweek one is only the best know.
There are better ones though.

So you think Newsweek is a scientific publication. Explains a lot.

There were enough concerned scientists that it attracted the
attention of most of the media of the day. I remember our Geography
teacher believing that another Ice Age was going to hit because of
Global Cooling. There were pictures of huge ice sheets moving across
the landscape flattening cities like giant bulldozers scraping the
Earth clean.

"Oh, come on. Not that old urban myth." Really Roger??? Are you
sure?
You demonstrate that you know nothing. All those articles were[/quote]
written because of worries and claims by scientists. They weren>t just
dreamed up science fiction written by amateurs.
Oh come off it. You Alarmists in this group quote newspaper
articles, but you don>t want us to do the same? Just like you use
warming in small areas of the world, or famine somewhere, or forest
fires, (California) to bolster your Global Warming claims.
But if we use small areas of the world to argue against you, you
state, "that>s just one small area of the world, it is not the globe.
You can>t use small area references"

You guys want it both ways and don>t want us to do the same.
Global Warming Alarmists... what a bunch of idiots.

Kurt Lochner · Guest

"seems ludicrous" <sock_puppet@lotta_stool.nut> sniveled reflexively:
[quote]
Kurt Lochner pointed out the obvious, as it escapes snickering at:

"seems ludicrous" <sock_puppet@lotta_stool.nut> whined incredulously:

Kurt Lochner was refuting the prepubescent rationalizations of:

"stupor, title" deleted and bleated impotently because:

Kurt Lochner restored the following text/context:

"stupor, title" vented, like a right-wing parrot:
- - - - - --
If there>s a correlation between the suns output and sunspots then so be it

Not enough to change our current man-made global warming..

As shown in the video,

I do not accept Youtube videos as 'scientific evidence'..

Maybe you shouldn>t either..

You are correct!

And your pointless remark, followed by another couple of YouTube videos
was?

--Maybe you should find another hobby, you aren>t very good at this..

Keep your lessons for
[/quote]
Yes, otherwise I might be accused of casting pearls before swine..

--Why>d you start using sock-puppet, stupor tit-hole?

obozn · Guest

"Roger Coppcock" <rcoppcock@socialistagenda.com> wrote in message
news:e16691b6-994c-426d-a4b9-5c8aa6dd3522@25g2000hsk.googlegroups.com...
Denialist 'Global Cooling' prediction hoax exposed
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/10/global-cooling-...
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/01/the-global-cool...
http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11643
Some of the links may be old. This myth
was debunked a decade ago.
*************************************************

ROTFLMAO

You never fail to amuse me, my son!

Of course it would not have been debunked a decade ago, comrade!

A decade ago we had a switchover from global warming to global cooling
phases.

Try "debunking" it now, after we>ve had ten years of global cooling!!!

Warmest Regards

Bonzo

"The great sin of capitalism is its unequal distribution of benefits.
The great virtue of socialism is its equal distribution of miseries."
Winston Churchill

Peter Franks · Guest

Roger Coppock wrote:
[quote]The Sunspot Scapegoat

Fossil fools, in their never ending search for something
other than their master>s oil and coal products that is
the major cause of global warming, often blame sunspots.
They produce cherry picked proxy series and collections
of anecdotes to try to support this. However, directly
observed data tell a different story. Actual sunspot
count data barely show any correlation with the observed
global land and sea surface temperature from 1880 to
today.
[/quote]
Interesting graph:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Sunspot-temperature-10000yr.svg

From:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation

bznoo · Guest

"Roger Coppock" <rcoppock@adnc.com> wrote in message
news:e7f9cbf7-94f5-4114-a3e8-b42c7ee6027f@u18g2000pro.googlegroups.com...
On Oct 30, 7:33 am, Peter Franks <n...@none.com> wrote:
[ . . . ]
[quote]Rephrased:
So, do you disagree w/ the hypothesis that the Little Ice Age was a
result of the Maunder Minimum?
Was there a global little ice age? Or was it a collection[/quote]
of weather anecdotes like those Tom B. and Dirk C.
are offering. One shouldn>t confuse interesting stories
for real data.
Got any real data?
**********************************************

Got any real data disproving the Global Little Ice Age or the Global
Mediæval Warm Period, comrade?

Warmest Regards

Bonzo

"We have to get rid of the Mediæval Warm Period" Confided to
geophysicist David Deming by the IPCC (1995)

oonbz · Guest

Sunspots And Climate

B. Geerts and E. Linacre

1 Dec 97

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap02/sunspots.html

Sunspot cycle

Sunspots have a diameter of about 37,000 km and appear as dark spots within
the photosphere, the outermost layer of the Sun. The photosphere is about
400 km deep, and provides most of our solar radiation. The layer is about
6,000 degrees Kelvin at the inner boundary and 4,200 K on the outside. The
temperature within sunspots is about 4,600 K. The number of sunspots peaks
every 11.1 years.

There is a strong radial magnetic field within a sunspot, as implied in the
picture, and the direction of the field reverses in alternate years within
the leading sunspots of a group. So the true sunspot cycle is 22.2 years.
There is also a superimposed fluctuation with a period of 25 months, i.e. a
quasi-biennial oscillation.

Sunspots were observed in the Far East for over 2000 years, but examined
more intensely in Europe after the invention of telescopes in the 17th
century. In 1647 Johannes Hevelius (1611-87) in Danzig made drawings of the
movements of sunspots eastwards and gradually towards the solar equator. In
1801 William Herschel (1738-1822) attempted to correlate the annual number
of sunspots to the price of grain in London. The 11-year cycle of the number
of sunspots was first demonstrated by Heinrich Schwabe (1789-1875) in 1843.

There have been several periods during which sunspots were rare or absent,
most notably the Maunder minimum (1645-1715), and less markedly the Dalton
minimum (1795-1820) (Fig 2.8 in the book). During the Maunder minimum the
proportional concentration of radio-carbon (14C) in the Earth?s atmosphere
was slightly higher than normal, causing an underestimate of the
radio-carbon date of objects from those periods. By means of the premise of
excess 14C concentrations in independently dated material (such as tree
rings), other minima have been found at times prior to direct sunspot
observations, for instance the Sporer minimum from 1450 to1540. Data from
8,000 year-old bristle-cone pine trees indicate 18 periods of sunspot minima
in the last 7,800 years (1). This and other studies have shown that the Sun
(as well as other stars) spends about a quarter of its time with very few
sunspots.

There is another well-known, super-imposed variation of annual sunspot
numbers, of about 85 years. This irregular variation affects the length of
the sunspot cycle, ranging from 9.8 to 12.0 years. Maxima of sunspot-cycle
length occured in 1770, 1845 and 1940.

Sunspots and climate

Incidentally, the Sporer, Maunder, and Dalton minima coincide with the
colder periods of the Little Ice Age, which lasted from about 1450 to 1820.
More recently it was discovered that the sunspot number during 1861-1989
shows a remarkable parallelism with the simultaneous variation in northern
hemisphere mean temperatures (2). There is an even better correlation with
the length of the solar cycle, between years of the highest numbers of
sunspots. For example, the temperature anomaly was - 0.4 K in 1890 when the
cycle was 11.7 years, but + 0.25 K in 1989 when the cycle was 9.8 years.
Some critics of the theory of man-induced global warming have seized on this
discovery to criticize the greenhouse gas theory.

All this evokes the important question of how sunspots affect the Earth>s
climate. To answer this question, we need to know how total solar irradiance
received by the Earth is affected by sunspot activity.

Intuitively one may assume the that total solar irradiance would decrease as
the number of (optically dark) sunspots increased. However direct satellite
measurements of irradiance have shown just the opposite to be the case. This
means that more sunspots deliver more energy to the atmosphere, so that
global temperatures should rise.

According to current theory, sunspots occur in pairs as magnetic
disturbances in the convective plasma near the Sun>s surface. Magnetic field
lines emerge from one sunspot and re-enter at the other spot. Also, there
are more sunspots during periods of increased magnetic activity. At that
time more highly charged particles are emitted from the solar surface, and
the Sun emits more UV and visible radiation. Direct measurements are
uncertain, but estimates are that the Sun>s radiant energy varies by up to
0.2% between the extremes of a sunspot cycle. Polar auroras are magnificent
in years with numerous sunspots, and the ?aurora activity? (AA) index varies
in phase with the number of sunspots. Auroras are faint and rare when the
Sun is magnetically quiescent, as during the Maunder minimum.

The periodicity of the sunspot number, and hence that of the circulation in
the solar plasma, relates to the rotation of the Sun about the centre of
gravity of whole solar system, taking 11.1 years on average. Sometimes the
Sun is up to a million kilometres from that centre, and sometimes it more or
less coincides, leading to different conditions of turbulence within the
photosphere. The transition from one condition to the other affects the
number of sunspots.

Not only does the increased brightness of the Sun tend to warm the Earth,
but also the solar wind (a stream of highly energetic charged particles)
shields the atmosphere from cosmic rays, which produce 14C. So there is more
14C when the Sun is magnetically quiescent. This explains why 14C samples
from independently dated material are used as a way of inferring the Sun>s
magnetic history.

Recent research (3) indicates that the combined effects of sunspot-induced
changes in solar irradiance and increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases
offer the best explanation yet for the observed rise in average global
temperature over the last century. Using a global climate model based on
energy conservation, Lane et al (3) constructed a profile of atmospheric
climate "forcing" due to combined changes in solar irradiance and emissions
of greenhouse gases between 1880 and 1993. They found that the temperature
variations predicted by their model accounted for up to 92% of the
temperature changes actually observed over the period -- an excellent match
for that period. Their results also suggest that the sensitivity of climate
to the effects of solar irradiance is about 27% higher than its sensitivity
to forcing by greenhouse gases.

Sunspots and climate prediction

We do not know why the Sun spends part of its time in a magnetically
quiescent state, and whether the sunspot minima occur with a regularity that
is sufficient to predict when the next quiescent episode might occur.

At present there is no concern about another Little Ice Age. Recent
satellite measurements of solar brightness, analyzed by Willson (4), show an
increase from the previous cycle of sunspot activity to the current one,
indicating that the Earth is receiving more energy from the Sun. Willson
indicates that if the current rate of increase of solar irradiance continues
until the mid 21th century, then the surface temperatures will increase by
about 0.5? C. This is small, but not a negligible fraction of the expected
greenhouse warming.

The relationship between cycle length and Earth temperatures is not well
understood. Lower-than normal temperatures tend to occur in years when the
sunspot cycle is longest, as confirmed by records of the annual duration of
sea-ice around Iceland. The cycle will be longest again in the early 2020>s.

References

Eddy, J.A. 1981: Climate and the role of the Sun. In Rotberg and Rabb 1981,
145--67 (5).

Friis-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen 1991. Length of the solar cycle, an
indication of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254,
698-700.

Lane, L.J., M.H. Nichols, and H.B. Osborn 1994: Time series analyses of
global change data. Environ. Pollut., 83, 63-68.

Willson, R.C. 1997. Total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21 and
22. Science, 277, 1963-5.

Rotberg, I. and T.K. Rabb (eds) 1981: Climate and History. (Princeton Univ.
Press

Warmest Regards

Bonzo

oonbz · Guest

Researchers Use Solar Cycles to Predict Climatic Fluctuations

2 Dec 2008

The sun>s magnetic field may have a significant impact on weather and
climatic parameters in Australia and other countries in the northern and
southern hemispheres.

According to a study in Geographical Research published by Wiley-Blackwell,
the droughts in eastern Australia are related to the solar magnetic phases
and not the greenhouse effect.

The study titled "Exploratory Analysis of Similarities in Solar Cycle
Magnetic Phases with Southern Oscillation Index Fluctuation in Eastern
Australia" uses data from 1876 to the present to examine the correlation
between solar cycles and the extreme rainfall in Australia.

It finds that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - the basic tool for
forecasting variations in global and oceanic patterns - and rainfall
fluctuations recorded over the last decade are similar to those in
1914 -1924.

Author Professor Robert G. V. Baker from the School of Environmental
Studies, University of New England, Australia, says, "The interaction
between the directionality in the Sun>s and Earth>s magnetic fields, the
incidence of ultraviolet radiation over the tropical Pacific, and changes in
sea surface temperatures with cloud cover, could contribute to an
explanation of substantial changes in the SOI from solar cycle fluctuations.
If solar cycles continue to show relational values to climate patterns,
there is the potential for more accurate forecasting through to 2010 and
possibly beyond."

The SOI-solar association has been investigated recently due to increasing
interest in the relationship between the sun>s cycles and the climate. The
solar application offers the potential for the long-range prediction of SOI
behavior and associated rainfall variations, since quasi-periodicity in
solar activity results in an expected cycle of situations and phases that
are not random events.

Professor Baker adds, "This discovery could substantially advance
forecasting from months to decades. It should result in much better
long-term management of agricultural production and water resources, in
areas where rainfall is correlated to SOI and El Niño (ENSO) events."

This paper is published in the December 2008 issue of Geographical Research
Vol. 46 Issue 4.

Media wishing to receive a PDF or schedule media interviews with the author
should contact Alina Boey, Senior Manager, Corporate Communications via
email or phone.

About Geographical Research

Geographical Research, formerly Australian Geographical Studies, is the
international journal of the Institute of Australian Geographers. The
journal publishes high quality papers that advance geographical research
across the breadth of the discipline. In addition to major research
articles, the journal publishes shorter contributions, including
Commentaries, Research Notes and Teaching Notes. Geographical Research is
published four times per year.

http://www.newswiretoday.com/news/43452/

Warmest Regards

Bonzo


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