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 Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 7:08 am Post subject: The Tipping Point That Wouldn>t Tip |
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3 Jul 2008
QUOTE: Hansen calculated that both the Arctic and Antarctic would warm
by 5-6 degrees Centigrade
QUOTE: most of Antarctica has cooled and sea ice has rapidly expanded
QUOTE: In 2004, Dr Hansen returned to the subject. This time, he
explained (pdf) that most of Arctic warming and melting is due to dirty
snow from soot, not CO2
QUOTE: In other words, then, Antarctic temperatures and ice are going
the opposite direction of what Dr. Hansen predicted, and most of the
Arctic warming is due to soot, not CO2. His own research directly
contradicts his recent high-profile statements about the Arctic and CO2.
QUOTE: Dr Hansen also talks frequently about the unprecedented
temperature rise in the Arctic, yet his own temperature records show
that much of the Arctic (including Greenland) was warmer from 1920-1940
than now.
QUOTE: According to official US Weather Bureau records (pdf) from 1922,
there was open sailing very close to the North Pole that year. Anthony
Watts unearthed this quote from the Weather Bureau:
"In fact, so little ice has never before been noted. The expedition all
but established a record, sailing as far north as 81 degrees in ice-free
water.
Satellite records have been kept for polar sea ice over the last thirty
years by the University Of Illinois. In 2007 2008, two very different
records were set. The Arctic broke the previous record for the least sea
ice area ever recorded, while the Antarctic broke the record for the
most sea ice area ever recorded. Summed up over the entire earth, polar
ice has remained constant. As seen below, there has been no net gain or
loss of polar sea ice since records began.
Last week, Dr James Hansen from NASA spoke about how CO2 is affecting
the polar ice caps.
"We see a tipping point occurring right before our eyes... The Arctic is
the first tipping point and it>s occurring exactly the way we said it
would," he said.
Well, not exactly.
Hansen is only telling half the story. In the 1980s the same Dr Hansen
wrote a paper titled Climate Sensitivity to Increasing Greenhouse Gases
[pdf], in which he explained how CO2 causes "polar amplification." He
predicted nearly symmetrical warming at both poles.
As shown in Figure 2-2 from the article, Hansen calculated that both the
Arctic and Antarctic would warm by 5-6 degrees Centigrade.
His predictions were largely incorrect, as most of Antarctica has cooled
and sea ice has rapidly expanded.
The evidence does not support the theory.
In 2004, Dr Hansen returned to the subject. This time, he explained
(pdf) that most of Arctic warming and melting is due to dirty snow from
soot, not CO2.
"Soot snow/ice albedo climate forcing is not included in
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change evaluations. This forcing is
unusually effective, causing twice as much global warming as a CO2
forcing of the same magnitude," he wrote.
Once the snow dirties, it absorbs sunlight, warms, and quickly melts.
Then the land and air above warms, causing higher temperature readings.
This affects the Arctic more than the Antarctic simply because there
aren>t many people living near the Antarctic. The Arctic is polluted by
European cities and oil fields in Siberia - where gas flaring generates
huge amounts of soot.
In fact, scientists at the University of California have estimated that
up to 94 per cent of Arctic melt is due to dirty snow.
In other words, then, Antarctic temperatures and ice are going the
opposite direction of what Dr. Hansen predicted, and most of the Arctic
warming is due to soot, not CO2. His own research directly contradicts
his recent high-profile statements about the Arctic and CO2.
Dr Hansen also talks frequently about the unprecedented temperature rise
in the Arctic, yet his own temperature records show that much of the
Arctic (including Greenland) was warmer from 1920-1940 than now. The
NASA graph below from Nuuk, Greenland is typical of long term records of
the region.
Nuuk, Greenland is a key location because it is located in the southwest
portion of the island and is not far from the mouth of the Jakobshavn
Glacier - the most rapidly moving glacier in the world and a poster
child for global warming campaigners. It is also the largest city and
capital of Greenland, located just south of the Arctic Circle. NASA
literature from the last few years focuses heavily on anomalous melt in
southwest Greenland as a concern for sea level rise.
Temperature anamoly at Nuuk
During the ice age scare in the 1970s the Arctic cooled dramatically,
and is only now returning to temperatures comparable to sixty years ago.
Most of the other Arctic locations with long-term records show similar
trends. Long-term NASA temperature records in the Arctic are very
sparse, but most show a pattern similar to Nuuk. Most of the other
Arctic locations with long-term records show similar trends.
Ostrov, Hatanga, Gmo, Bodo Vi, and Reykjavik are good examples.
Another pollution problem reported by NASA is known as the Arctic Haze.
This is a human-generated brown cloud which hovers over the Arctic and
traps heat. Additionally, we know that the summer of 2007 had unusually
low cloud cover in the Arctic, which contributed to the unusual melt.
But probably the most important factor in the anomalous "melt" was a
spate of strong winds which blew all summer up the Bering Strait, across
the pole and out into the warm waters of the North Atlantic. This
compressed the sea ice towards Greenland and revealed a large area of
open water north of Siberia and Alaska.
But in 2008 we are not seeing that. The winds and temperatures in the
Arctic are quite different, and as of today there is more ice than
normal around Siberia. The Arctic melt season ends in about seven weeks
because the sun will get too low. As of June 26, there is no indication
that the North Pole is in danger of melting.
The BBC>s Richard Black wrote an article last week claiming that Arctic
Ice is melting "even faster than last year." Looking at the Cryosphere
Today map, it is abundantly clear that ice is melting more slowly than
last year. By the end of June, 2007 the Hudson Bay was essentially
ice-free. This year it is close to normal, with cold temperatures
predicted for most of the rest of the short melt season. Someone is
apparently having trouble reading maps at either the BBC and/or NSIDC.
Northwest Passage?
Last summer, the headlines read "First ever traversal of the Northwest
Passage". This sounds very dramatic, except that it is entirely
incorrect. As the BBC reported: "In 1905, Norwegian explorer Roald
Amundsen became the first person to successfully navigate the Northwest
Passage, in a wooden sailboat." The Northwest Passage has been navigated
at least one hundred times over the last century.
According to official US Weather Bureau records (pdf) from 1922, there
was open sailing very close to the North Pole that year. Anthony Watts
unearthed this quote from the Weather Bureau:
"In fact, so little ice has never before been noted. The expedition all
but established a record, sailing as far north as 81 degrees in ice-free
water.
We must check back in seven weeks to see if the North Pole is ice-free.
My money is on the experts being wrong - again. As the great physicist
Dr Richard Feynman said, "Science is the belief in the ignorance of the
experts." ®
The author, Steven Goddard, is not affiliated directly or indirectly
with any energy industry, nor does he have any current affiliation with
any university.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/07/03/goddard_polar_ice/
--
Warmest Regards
Bonzo
"What is "settled" is the politics, not the science." Patrick J.
Michaels |
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